Friday, July 31, 2009
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Snake's Gambit
National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales goes to town peddling the idea that the solution to the current political crisis is through a military-backed transition government.
The transition government, according to Gonzales, will be represented by a Council of State that shall include President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, representatives from the two houses of Congress, the judiciary (namely, Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno), the Church (the CBCP or some Catholic bishops), and the military (headed by General Victor Ibrado). Gonzales also wanted to involve representatives from the civil society and the political groups in the country.
Gonzales likened this transition government to the “revolutionary government” established by former President Corazon Aquino immediately after the 1986 people’s power uprising. But my view is that Gonzales’ transition government is nowhere near what Cory established in 1986. Reading the updated edition of Criselda Yabes’ groundbreaking book The Boys from the Barracks (now available again at several bookshops), I say it could be likened to the Council for National Reconciliation, a council of state that was supposed to replace Marcos in the event of a successful coup d’etat engineered at that time by then Secretary of Defense Johnny Enrile and the RAM forces.
As envisioned, the Council for National Reconciliation would be composed of Enrile, Fidel Ramos, Cory Aquino, Salvador Laurel, Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin, businessman Jaime Ongpin, and diplomat Alejandro Melchor. The Council did not materialize. Instead, Cory Aquino took power and declared a “revolutionary government” all by her lonesome.
Gonzales’ Council of State
The idea behind Gonzales’ Council of State is to bring together all the bickering political groups towards a non-violent transition of the tottering state machinery. Gonzales stresses the “revolutionary character” of the Council in so far as it will aim to do away with the constitutional impediments in the latest attempt to amend the Constitution and introduce “electoral reforms”. Gonzales’ transition government is designed to ensure Charter change through the continuation of the Con-Ass or the establishment of a handpicked constitutional commission under a cloud of emergency rule.
It was reported that Gonzales’ timetable for the imposition of the transition government would be anytime between August and September, or a few weeks before the filing of candidacy for the 2010 elections. Come November, the political climate will have to veer away from any extra-constitutional scheming and focus on the campaigns and the elections.
Gonzales raves about the transition government as the political elixir to the bickering between the two houses of Congress, to the intermittent power-grab plotting among factions of the ruling classes, and to Gloria’s desperate attempt to hold on to power at the expense of destabilizing the entire political system. With a council of state that includes almost all of the political players that matter today, Gonzales assures everyone that the transition period will be stable and smooth-sailing compared to any other initiatives pursued by various contending forces.
This is probably the “selling point” that got some Catholic bishops agreeing to the idea of a transition government. For them, it could be another form of getting rid of GMA. GMA will be in the transition government only as an “unwilling accomplice” or crudely put, a captive by all the other forces surrounding her in the so-called council of state.
Gonzales himself explained that the plot will involve several steps intended to unify the motley forces that will compose the transition council. First, an agreement with the bishops; next, with Chief Justice Reynato Puno; then, with the military; the civil society; etc.; and finally with GMA herself.
Who is Gonzales representing?
There are a number of issues that need to be clarified in the Gonzales’ proposal:
First, has this proposal got a backing from GMA? If it has, then what would that make of those people who have agreed to the council of state set-up, such as CJ Puno as reported by Newsbreak (see newsbreak.com.ph) or from what we heard, those supposedly anti-GMA bishops? Could GMA charge them later on as part of “conspirators” trying to grab power from her administration?
Second, for the transition government to be proclaimed, it will mean that the normal constitutional avenues for change have failed, so that the only recourse will be through extra-constitutional exercise. If the transition government is not a product of a people’s uprising (ala-Edsa), then it can only be imposed through emergency rule or a coup d’etat.
So what does it mean? That Gonzales is doing a double agent’s job? He’s working for the Queen, but his overture with the anti-GMA opposition looks like he is bent to checkmate the Queen. But in Gonzales’ scheme of things, the Queen will still rule. Does this mean just an attempt to flush out all probable contenders to the throne? Is it the Queen’s gambit then?
But knowing Gonzales, or how he has managed to put himself in the center of all this plotting, it is more correct to say this is a Snake’s gambit than anything else. #
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
The Diabolical August Moon
August 6 is the calendar day when there’s going to be a full moon. It is also the day that marks the imposition of emergency rule, according to Oplan August Moon, a plan that is rumored to be the handiwork of “hawks and ideologues” within the Arroyo government upon the order of President GMA herself.
The plan is to position military generals friendly to GMA in a self-coup that would bolster the administration’s bid to amend the Constitution before the end of the year, or before the 2010 elections. The charter change is ultimately designed to extend GMA’s stay in power either as a “transition president” or the first prime minister under a parliamentary government.
Major details of Oplan August Moon have been circulating in the Internet in the past few days. [For full disclosure of Oplan August Moon, see attached an e-mail that was passed on to my address.]
PNP Director General Jesus Versoza and other government officials have laughed off the plan as preposterous and a creation of some opposition “propagandists”.
But what makes Oplan August Moon believable to many has been the sequence of events that preceded the leaking out of the plot, and more so, the wave of bombings that are happening today which have been predicted in the plan.
‘Revolutionary’ transitory government
A week before Oplan August Moon was leaked to the media, GMA’s national security adviser Norberto Gonzales floated the idea of declaring a revolutionary “transitory government” composed of the leadership of the two houses of Congress, the judiciary, and the Church. It will be a collective leadership under the helm of GMA herself. Virtually, it is an extension of GMA’s presidency.
According to Gonzales, the transition government will amend the Constitution and put in electoral reforms before the 2010 elections. The transition government is ‘revolutionary’ in the sense that it will have to dispense with any Constitutional impediments related to Cha-cha and the prerogatives of the president.
The Gonzales’ proposal is clearly a ‘palace coup’ in line with the Oplan August Moon. The plan can be seen as the implementation of the proposal, with a clear military’s role as back up to the ‘transitory government’.
Now, the bombings
Oplan August Moon also indicates the intensification of an environment of chaos and confusion leading to the declaration of emergency rule. The scenario involves “bombings, assassinations of key government officials and members of the media”. These operations will be blamed to the Jemaah Islamiyah or the Al-Qaeda members who were reported earlier on by the media as being in the country already.
As of today, there has been a wave of bombings in Mindanao, beginning with a Sunday blast outside the Cotabato cathedral which claimed the lives of six persons. On Tuesday, three more bomb attacks occurred in various parts of Mindanao – an explosion hit Jolo and Iligan City, killing two more people and injuring scores of others. The bombings have not only hit Mindanao. A bomb was detonated near the Ombudsman building, and another one was found near the Department of Agriculture.
At first, the military pointed to the rogue elements of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) as perpetrators under a supposed “grand plan” to sow terror in Mindanao. The MILF has quickly denied the charges. As of today, the military and police forces have declared red alert in Metro Manila. The chief of military’s NCR command, Maj. Gen. Leo Fojas, now declares that the bombings were undertaken by a “terror group” composed of three to four members of the Abu Sayyaf bandit group, a rogue unit in the MILF, and the Jemaah Islamiyah of the global Al-Qaeda network.
A few days after the Cotabato bombing, former ISAFP member and whistle-blower Vidal Doble declared that only the government could be behind the bombing.
Insiders’ expose
Oplan August Moon and the diabolical plan to impose emergency rule in the country have fanned deep divisions among factions of the ruling elite.
Former House speaker Jose de Venecia condemned the bombings as part of an administration plot to impose emergency rule, or martial law, as envisioned in Oplan August Moon. De Venecia even exposed that during the Manila Peninsula hotel siege in 2007, GMA had almost declared martial law. “If she nearly did it once, she could do it now,” the ousted speaker lamented.
Prior to de Venecia’s bombshells, former senate president Franklin Drilon has also linked up the bombings to GMA’s plan to impose emergency rule. If these people, who were formerly part of the inner circle of the Arroyo administration, are now warning the people of the plot to impose emergency rule, then Oplan August Moon seems to have been already put in place.
People’s vigilance
The Inquirer editorial today sums up the sinister situation developing today. While the government seems to be whipping up paranoia to justify martial rule, it is a virtue for the public to also act paranoid. Not to fall into the trap of the government’s line, but to understand that there are indeed many enemies of our democracy, starting from the snakes and vultures at the Malacanang palace itself. The Inquirer said, “They exist, and are waiting only for the people’s vigilance to weaken.”
The plan is to position military generals friendly to GMA in a self-coup that would bolster the administration’s bid to amend the Constitution before the end of the year, or before the 2010 elections. The charter change is ultimately designed to extend GMA’s stay in power either as a “transition president” or the first prime minister under a parliamentary government.
Major details of Oplan August Moon have been circulating in the Internet in the past few days. [For full disclosure of Oplan August Moon, see attached an e-mail that was passed on to my address.]
PNP Director General Jesus Versoza and other government officials have laughed off the plan as preposterous and a creation of some opposition “propagandists”.
But what makes Oplan August Moon believable to many has been the sequence of events that preceded the leaking out of the plot, and more so, the wave of bombings that are happening today which have been predicted in the plan.
‘Revolutionary’ transitory government
A week before Oplan August Moon was leaked to the media, GMA’s national security adviser Norberto Gonzales floated the idea of declaring a revolutionary “transitory government” composed of the leadership of the two houses of Congress, the judiciary, and the Church. It will be a collective leadership under the helm of GMA herself. Virtually, it is an extension of GMA’s presidency.
According to Gonzales, the transition government will amend the Constitution and put in electoral reforms before the 2010 elections. The transition government is ‘revolutionary’ in the sense that it will have to dispense with any Constitutional impediments related to Cha-cha and the prerogatives of the president.
The Gonzales’ proposal is clearly a ‘palace coup’ in line with the Oplan August Moon. The plan can be seen as the implementation of the proposal, with a clear military’s role as back up to the ‘transitory government’.
Now, the bombings
Oplan August Moon also indicates the intensification of an environment of chaos and confusion leading to the declaration of emergency rule. The scenario involves “bombings, assassinations of key government officials and members of the media”. These operations will be blamed to the Jemaah Islamiyah or the Al-Qaeda members who were reported earlier on by the media as being in the country already.
As of today, there has been a wave of bombings in Mindanao, beginning with a Sunday blast outside the Cotabato cathedral which claimed the lives of six persons. On Tuesday, three more bomb attacks occurred in various parts of Mindanao – an explosion hit Jolo and Iligan City, killing two more people and injuring scores of others. The bombings have not only hit Mindanao. A bomb was detonated near the Ombudsman building, and another one was found near the Department of Agriculture.
At first, the military pointed to the rogue elements of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) as perpetrators under a supposed “grand plan” to sow terror in Mindanao. The MILF has quickly denied the charges. As of today, the military and police forces have declared red alert in Metro Manila. The chief of military’s NCR command, Maj. Gen. Leo Fojas, now declares that the bombings were undertaken by a “terror group” composed of three to four members of the Abu Sayyaf bandit group, a rogue unit in the MILF, and the Jemaah Islamiyah of the global Al-Qaeda network.
A few days after the Cotabato bombing, former ISAFP member and whistle-blower Vidal Doble declared that only the government could be behind the bombing.
Insiders’ expose
Oplan August Moon and the diabolical plan to impose emergency rule in the country have fanned deep divisions among factions of the ruling elite.
Former House speaker Jose de Venecia condemned the bombings as part of an administration plot to impose emergency rule, or martial law, as envisioned in Oplan August Moon. De Venecia even exposed that during the Manila Peninsula hotel siege in 2007, GMA had almost declared martial law. “If she nearly did it once, she could do it now,” the ousted speaker lamented.
Prior to de Venecia’s bombshells, former senate president Franklin Drilon has also linked up the bombings to GMA’s plan to impose emergency rule. If these people, who were formerly part of the inner circle of the Arroyo administration, are now warning the people of the plot to impose emergency rule, then Oplan August Moon seems to have been already put in place.
People’s vigilance
The Inquirer editorial today sums up the sinister situation developing today. While the government seems to be whipping up paranoia to justify martial rule, it is a virtue for the public to also act paranoid. Not to fall into the trap of the government’s line, but to understand that there are indeed many enemies of our democracy, starting from the snakes and vultures at the Malacanang palace itself. The Inquirer said, “They exist, and are waiting only for the people’s vigilance to weaken.”
Attachment re Oplan August Moon
“Oplan August Moon ( Hope to write some of my thoughts on this in days to come...)
Posted by Patricio Mangubat on Monday, June 29, 2009
Brace yourself my friends for a tumultuous July. Some months ago, I've wrote an entry about the plan of hawks and ideologues within the Arroyo administration to create scenarios to implement Operation August Moon. This self-coup will happen the week after the SONA, on August 6, 2009. One of the indicators, say a source who requested anonymity, is the expected failure of the poll automation bidding.
" Pat, the plan involves compromising the automated bidding altogether, " says a friend privy to the plan. " Imagine, what was the reason why they approved of Smartmatic-TIM (the company that won the COMELEC's bid for election automation in the Philippines) when they know for a fact, that the only capability of the group is face value of Cezar Quiambao and Ernest Villareal. That's all. The so-called consortium which was backed legally by one of Comelec chairman's closest relative was never in existence. They just used the group to get the bidding and eventually the plan was really to mess things up. That would surely create unrest especially to the De Villa group who is pushing for automation of the elections."
COMELEC Chairman Jose Melo said in an Inquirer interview that they don't want to negotiate with a "ghost". Well, I don't know about Melo, but I am totally surprised with Atty. Rafanan. Why did Rafanan failed to even check the credentials of Smartmatic-TIM before they even allowed them to take part in the bidding? Is it elementary for a member of the bar to do that?
This failure of the Comelec just shows that the entire thing was a setup, a design to really sabotage the bidding and compromise the elections in May 2010.
The plan also involves the heightening of tensions between rebel groups and the military in Mindanao since most generals distrust Southcom Brig. General Juancho Sabban. They want to keep Sabban busy in Mindanao so that he'll have his hands full while they orchestrate their moves in Metro Manila (a bomb exploded in the Ombudsman building and the discovery of another bomb in the Department of Agriculture building?).
Sabban is the youngest member of Class 1978 yet he reportedly does not share his mistahs' dogged allegiance to Mrs. Arroyo. He was formerly a member of RAM (Rebolusyunaryong Alyansang Makabansa). Yet, says deeper sources in the military, he'll take extreme action once other members of his class went ahead with Arroyo's plan.
Moves were to create an environment of chaos and confusion, with reports of bombings, assasinations of key government officials and members of the media. These black operations will be blamed to so-called JI or Al-qaeda members who, a week ago, was reportedly in the country already. News about their existence were floated to the media to be used later on by the government in the blame game.
A move against Lacson accuser former police official Cezar Mancao is reportedly also in the pipeline. The source refused to say what would happen to Mancao.
This early, talks that PMA Class 1976 of which the present AFP Chief of Staff General Ibrado belongs to and PMA Class 1978 were already at logger heads. Army Chief Lt. General Delfin Bangit is reportedly filling up sensitive posts without the knowledge of Ibrado.
Bear in mind that all sensitive positions right now in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) are occupied by members of Class 1978. The Air Force is headed by Lt. Gen. Oscar Rabena. The entire NCRPO which has, under its disposal, the anti-coup task force, is headed by Chief Supt. Roberto Rosales while the head of the Manila Police District which provides external security of Malacanang right now is headed by Director Rodolfo Magtibay.
Members of Class 1976 occupy the Central Command (Lt. Gen.. Isagani Cachuela), the Navy (Vice Admiral Ferdinand Golez) and the Marines (Major Gen. Ben Mohammad Dolorfino). The AFP leadership is also being occupied by a PMA class 1976 member (Ibrado) and the PNP (Director General Jesus Verzosa).
The critical commands (Army and Air Force) are under the command of members of PMA Class 1978 while those with minimal numbers (the Marines and the Navy) were entrusted to PMA Class 1976.
Sources say Mrs. Arroyo's group will ease Ibrado out prior to the 2010 elections. They will use as a pretext this August 6 affair. Members of Class 1978 will move decisively ten days after July 27.
The plan is expected to take place on August 6, 2009, a full ten days after the SONA (SONA is slated on July 27, the Monday of the fourth week of July).
A state of martial rule will be imposed for six months, while members of Arroyo's devilish clan tinker with the Constitution. Parliamentary elections are slated on May 2010.
Other members of Class 1978 involved in this plan:
In GHQ, Camp Aguinaldo:
J2 (Inteligence) – Rear Adm. Victor Martir (PN – Philippine Navy)
Deputy J2 – Commodore EfrenTedor (PN)
J3 (Operations) - Maj. Gen. Carlos Holganza (PA – Philippine Army)
J6 (Commel) – Maj. Gen.. Jonathan Martir (PM – Philippine Marines)
J7 (Civil-Military Relations) – Maj. Gen. Sealana (PA)
DND-BAC Chairman – Brig. Gen. Gregorio Paduganan (PAF – Philippine Air Force)
Chief of Engineers – Maj. Gen. Rudyval Cabading (PA)
ISAFP – Maj. Gen. Romeo Prestoza (PAF)
Presidential Security Group – Brig. Gen. Celedonio Boquiren (PAF)
In the Army, six out of 10 infantry divisions are under the control of the Class of ’78 members, namely:
Lt. Gen.. Delfin Bangit – Commanding General of the Philippine Army
Maj. Gen. Roland Detabali – CG, Southern Luzon Command
Maj. Gen. Romeo Lustecteca – CG, 1st Infantry Division (Zamboanga del Norte)
Brig. Gen Florante Martinez – OIC, 2nd Infantry Division (Tanay, Rizal)
Maj. Gen. Vic Porto – CG, 3rd Infantry Division (Panay Island)
Maj. Gen. Ralph Villanueva – CG, 7th Infantry Division (Fort Magsaysay, Nueva Ecija)
Maj. Gen. Manuel Tabaquero – CG, 8th Infantry Division (Catbalogan, Samar)
Maj. Gen. Reynaldo Mapagu – CG, 10th Infantry Division (Caraga Region)
In the Air Force, there is Maj.. Gen. Oscar Rabena as Commanding General, and Brig. Gen Jesus Fajardo – CG, 710th Special Operations Wing as well as Col. Carlix Donila – Commander, 530th Air Base Wing (Zamboanga).
And in the Navy, the chief of the Naval Staff, Commodore Feliciano Angue, as well as heading the most strategically- located naval station in Cavite is Commodore Nestor Los Banes.
So now the game of the generals are on! Who'll be check mated in the end?
Now that I already revealed their plan in public, what now? Will they proceed with zero hour or not?
The best strategy against this devilish plan is expose them in public. I already did my part. How about the thousands of Patriots out there? Will you do yours?”
Posted by Patricio Mangubat on Monday, June 29, 2009
Brace yourself my friends for a tumultuous July. Some months ago, I've wrote an entry about the plan of hawks and ideologues within the Arroyo administration to create scenarios to implement Operation August Moon. This self-coup will happen the week after the SONA, on August 6, 2009. One of the indicators, say a source who requested anonymity, is the expected failure of the poll automation bidding.
" Pat, the plan involves compromising the automated bidding altogether, " says a friend privy to the plan. " Imagine, what was the reason why they approved of Smartmatic-TIM (the company that won the COMELEC's bid for election automation in the Philippines) when they know for a fact, that the only capability of the group is face value of Cezar Quiambao and Ernest Villareal. That's all. The so-called consortium which was backed legally by one of Comelec chairman's closest relative was never in existence. They just used the group to get the bidding and eventually the plan was really to mess things up. That would surely create unrest especially to the De Villa group who is pushing for automation of the elections."
COMELEC Chairman Jose Melo said in an Inquirer interview that they don't want to negotiate with a "ghost". Well, I don't know about Melo, but I am totally surprised with Atty. Rafanan. Why did Rafanan failed to even check the credentials of Smartmatic-TIM before they even allowed them to take part in the bidding? Is it elementary for a member of the bar to do that?
This failure of the Comelec just shows that the entire thing was a setup, a design to really sabotage the bidding and compromise the elections in May 2010.
The plan also involves the heightening of tensions between rebel groups and the military in Mindanao since most generals distrust Southcom Brig. General Juancho Sabban. They want to keep Sabban busy in Mindanao so that he'll have his hands full while they orchestrate their moves in Metro Manila (a bomb exploded in the Ombudsman building and the discovery of another bomb in the Department of Agriculture building?).
Sabban is the youngest member of Class 1978 yet he reportedly does not share his mistahs' dogged allegiance to Mrs. Arroyo. He was formerly a member of RAM (Rebolusyunaryong Alyansang Makabansa). Yet, says deeper sources in the military, he'll take extreme action once other members of his class went ahead with Arroyo's plan.
Moves were to create an environment of chaos and confusion, with reports of bombings, assasinations of key government officials and members of the media. These black operations will be blamed to so-called JI or Al-qaeda members who, a week ago, was reportedly in the country already. News about their existence were floated to the media to be used later on by the government in the blame game.
A move against Lacson accuser former police official Cezar Mancao is reportedly also in the pipeline. The source refused to say what would happen to Mancao.
This early, talks that PMA Class 1976 of which the present AFP Chief of Staff General Ibrado belongs to and PMA Class 1978 were already at logger heads. Army Chief Lt. General Delfin Bangit is reportedly filling up sensitive posts without the knowledge of Ibrado.
Bear in mind that all sensitive positions right now in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) are occupied by members of Class 1978. The Air Force is headed by Lt. Gen. Oscar Rabena. The entire NCRPO which has, under its disposal, the anti-coup task force, is headed by Chief Supt. Roberto Rosales while the head of the Manila Police District which provides external security of Malacanang right now is headed by Director Rodolfo Magtibay.
Members of Class 1976 occupy the Central Command (Lt. Gen.. Isagani Cachuela), the Navy (Vice Admiral Ferdinand Golez) and the Marines (Major Gen. Ben Mohammad Dolorfino). The AFP leadership is also being occupied by a PMA class 1976 member (Ibrado) and the PNP (Director General Jesus Verzosa).
The critical commands (Army and Air Force) are under the command of members of PMA Class 1978 while those with minimal numbers (the Marines and the Navy) were entrusted to PMA Class 1976.
Sources say Mrs. Arroyo's group will ease Ibrado out prior to the 2010 elections. They will use as a pretext this August 6 affair. Members of Class 1978 will move decisively ten days after July 27.
The plan is expected to take place on August 6, 2009, a full ten days after the SONA (SONA is slated on July 27, the Monday of the fourth week of July).
A state of martial rule will be imposed for six months, while members of Arroyo's devilish clan tinker with the Constitution. Parliamentary elections are slated on May 2010.
Other members of Class 1978 involved in this plan:
In GHQ, Camp Aguinaldo:
J2 (Inteligence) – Rear Adm. Victor Martir (PN – Philippine Navy)
Deputy J2 – Commodore EfrenTedor (PN)
J3 (Operations) - Maj. Gen. Carlos Holganza (PA – Philippine Army)
J6 (Commel) – Maj. Gen.. Jonathan Martir (PM – Philippine Marines)
J7 (Civil-Military Relations) – Maj. Gen. Sealana (PA)
DND-BAC Chairman – Brig. Gen. Gregorio Paduganan (PAF – Philippine Air Force)
Chief of Engineers – Maj. Gen. Rudyval Cabading (PA)
ISAFP – Maj. Gen. Romeo Prestoza (PAF)
Presidential Security Group – Brig. Gen. Celedonio Boquiren (PAF)
In the Army, six out of 10 infantry divisions are under the control of the Class of ’78 members, namely:
Lt. Gen.. Delfin Bangit – Commanding General of the Philippine Army
Maj. Gen. Roland Detabali – CG, Southern Luzon Command
Maj. Gen. Romeo Lustecteca – CG, 1st Infantry Division (Zamboanga del Norte)
Brig. Gen Florante Martinez – OIC, 2nd Infantry Division (Tanay, Rizal)
Maj. Gen. Vic Porto – CG, 3rd Infantry Division (Panay Island)
Maj. Gen. Ralph Villanueva – CG, 7th Infantry Division (Fort Magsaysay, Nueva Ecija)
Maj. Gen. Manuel Tabaquero – CG, 8th Infantry Division (Catbalogan, Samar)
Maj. Gen. Reynaldo Mapagu – CG, 10th Infantry Division (Caraga Region)
In the Air Force, there is Maj.. Gen. Oscar Rabena as Commanding General, and Brig. Gen Jesus Fajardo – CG, 710th Special Operations Wing as well as Col. Carlix Donila – Commander, 530th Air Base Wing (Zamboanga).
And in the Navy, the chief of the Naval Staff, Commodore Feliciano Angue, as well as heading the most strategically- located naval station in Cavite is Commodore Nestor Los Banes.
So now the game of the generals are on! Who'll be check mated in the end?
Now that I already revealed their plan in public, what now? Will they proceed with zero hour or not?
The best strategy against this devilish plan is expose them in public. I already did my part. How about the thousands of Patriots out there? Will you do yours?”
Monday, June 22, 2009
The Soliman Scenarios
In an e-mail message circulated by former Social Welfare Secretary Dinky Soliman, she enumerated a number of distinct scenarios that could unfold after the passage of HR 1109 by the House of Representatives. The listing down of the scenarios was an attempt by various NGOs and people’s organizations to strategize and to prepare in advance for any eventuality related to President GMA’s scheme to extend her rule. The scenarios, according to Soliman, were discussed during a meeting of various NGOs and people’s organizations opposed to the Constituent Assembly (Con-Ass).
Scenario 1: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. It sets the rules and proceeds to amend the constitution. A case is brought to the Supreme Court against the convening of Con-Ass. The SC decides that the Con-Ass, even without Senate approval, is valid. The plebiscite affirms a yes victory and May 2010 election is held for a parliamentary form of government. GMA runs on a district in Pampanga, she wins, and eventually becomes the first prime minister of the country.
Scenario 2: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. A case is filed in the Supreme Court and the SC declares that the Con-Ass is unconstitutional. The May 2010 presidential election goes unimpeded.
Scenario 3: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. There was rebellious outrage from the masses. Malacañang organizes ‘violent incidents’ to justify clampdown. GMA imposes emergency rule.
Scenario 4: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. A case is filed in the Supreme Court. The SC could not decide on time. The May 2010 elections continue. GMA runs for Congress in Pampanga and wins. Under a new president allied to GMA, Con-Ass continues and the SC finally affirms it. The Congress is converted into a unicameral body and GMA is elected as prime minister.
In these four scenarios, only Scenario 2 (the unimpeded May 10, 2010 elections) is considered in the Soliman email as the only one favorable for the citizenry. Scenarios 1, 3 and 4 are not desirable as they all point to GMA’s usurpation of power and extended rule either as prime minister (Scenario 1, 4) or dictator (Scenario 3).
If one’s framework of analysis is based on the mere continuation of regular elections, i.e., the usual elections dominated by different factions of trapo parties and individuals vying for seats – then, I would agree that only Scenario 2 is desirable.
However, for those who are really wanting authentic and radical change in the trapo politics, all of these scenarios open up opportunities to build a movement that can get rid of GMA and her cohorts, or even the entire trapo rule, during the course of its development.
For instance, the mere convening of Con-Ass, which is palpably designed to perpetuate President Arroyo to power, signals a number of opportunities to mobilize the masa and to work for GMA’s ouster during, or even before, the 2010 elections.
There are a number of ‘flashpoints’ or critical points where mass resistance may break out in the process leading to GMA’s extended rule as prime minister or dictator. The convening of the Con-Ass during Congress resumption on July 27 and thereafter will build more outrage from the people. The Supreme Court’s probable decision to allow the Con-Ass is another occasion for the build-up of people’s wrath. The plebiscite will be a massive campaign period for those opposing the amended constitution. The election (whether under a presidential or a parliamentary system) can also be a hotbed for resistance.
In the scenario involving GMA’s declaration of emergency rule, the outbreak of mass resistance will be more massive and decisive. Any attempt to reimpose martial law will be met with powerful opposition coming from all sectors, including from the nationalist and pro-masa soldiers.
The eruption of massive resistance is not an overly optimistic assessment, especially if one takes into consideration that all the scenarios infer stages of denouement where the masses and the political movement are provided the opportunities to intervene and to have some time to gear up for combat. While the trapos have their heydays, the forces for change are still intact and, with perseverance, can be mobilized to do battle.
Scenario 1: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. It sets the rules and proceeds to amend the constitution. A case is brought to the Supreme Court against the convening of Con-Ass. The SC decides that the Con-Ass, even without Senate approval, is valid. The plebiscite affirms a yes victory and May 2010 election is held for a parliamentary form of government. GMA runs on a district in Pampanga, she wins, and eventually becomes the first prime minister of the country.
Scenario 2: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. A case is filed in the Supreme Court and the SC declares that the Con-Ass is unconstitutional. The May 2010 presidential election goes unimpeded.
Scenario 3: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. There was rebellious outrage from the masses. Malacañang organizes ‘violent incidents’ to justify clampdown. GMA imposes emergency rule.
Scenario 4: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. A case is filed in the Supreme Court. The SC could not decide on time. The May 2010 elections continue. GMA runs for Congress in Pampanga and wins. Under a new president allied to GMA, Con-Ass continues and the SC finally affirms it. The Congress is converted into a unicameral body and GMA is elected as prime minister.
In these four scenarios, only Scenario 2 (the unimpeded May 10, 2010 elections) is considered in the Soliman email as the only one favorable for the citizenry. Scenarios 1, 3 and 4 are not desirable as they all point to GMA’s usurpation of power and extended rule either as prime minister (Scenario 1, 4) or dictator (Scenario 3).
If one’s framework of analysis is based on the mere continuation of regular elections, i.e., the usual elections dominated by different factions of trapo parties and individuals vying for seats – then, I would agree that only Scenario 2 is desirable.
However, for those who are really wanting authentic and radical change in the trapo politics, all of these scenarios open up opportunities to build a movement that can get rid of GMA and her cohorts, or even the entire trapo rule, during the course of its development.
For instance, the mere convening of Con-Ass, which is palpably designed to perpetuate President Arroyo to power, signals a number of opportunities to mobilize the masa and to work for GMA’s ouster during, or even before, the 2010 elections.
There are a number of ‘flashpoints’ or critical points where mass resistance may break out in the process leading to GMA’s extended rule as prime minister or dictator. The convening of the Con-Ass during Congress resumption on July 27 and thereafter will build more outrage from the people. The Supreme Court’s probable decision to allow the Con-Ass is another occasion for the build-up of people’s wrath. The plebiscite will be a massive campaign period for those opposing the amended constitution. The election (whether under a presidential or a parliamentary system) can also be a hotbed for resistance.
In the scenario involving GMA’s declaration of emergency rule, the outbreak of mass resistance will be more massive and decisive. Any attempt to reimpose martial law will be met with powerful opposition coming from all sectors, including from the nationalist and pro-masa soldiers.
The eruption of massive resistance is not an overly optimistic assessment, especially if one takes into consideration that all the scenarios infer stages of denouement where the masses and the political movement are provided the opportunities to intervene and to have some time to gear up for combat. While the trapos have their heydays, the forces for change are still intact and, with perseverance, can be mobilized to do battle.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Talking ‘Bout A Revolution
Former Senate President Franklin Drilon warned the Arroyo government of massive street protests that would lead to a revolution should it continue with the Con-Ass plan.
This warning comes in the heels of a series of protests that erupted after the ignominious passage of House Resolution 1109 by the Lower House two weeks ago. With the Resolution, the House can convene itself as a constituent assembly, without the Senate, to amend the constitution and pave the way for GMA’s continued rule after 2010.
Is the revolution imminent? Drilon replied, “The Filipino people may suffer hunger and economic difficulties in stride but I don’t think they will stand idle while President Arroyo and her cronies stamp on their political rights just to be able to hold on to power. The majority of the Filipino people may be silent but Malacañang should not mistake this for complacency and submissiveness.”
I am of the opinion that there is really something in the air. And this we witness almost daily through strings of actions in the streets lambasting GMA, the House and the Con-Ass. The actions may still be small in number, but the responses from the common people are quite overwhelming.
I found out that the Shame campaign of BMP, PLM and Sanlakas against those representatives who voted for HR 1109 has been gaining support from the masa in the streets. The activists throwing rotten eggs at the LTA building in Makati last Thursday were egged on (pun intended) by onlookers to target the top floor where Mike Arroyo holds office. Last Friday’s noise barrage of Akbayan and other groups at Philcoa were greeted with wild honking by motorists passing through the site.
And the protests will go on. The convening of the Con-Ass during the Sona or after the Sona might be the final straw that will break the camel’s back. This will look like the Senate envelope inquiry during Erap’s impeachment trial, which spurred Edsa Two and led to the exit of Estrada from Malacanang.
But first, some comments about the revolution.
I think that Drilon is really wishing for a revolution, but I guess he just meant an Edsa-type ‘revolution’ once again. Which means that the people will be called to rise up to ensure an unimpeded electoral exercise that will only put new trapos in power.
I have always maintained that the two Edsas have never been a revolution in the strict sense of the word. They overthrew governments, but they only replaced the persons in charge with those belonging to the rival factions of the same ruling classes.
A revolution is an act where the ruling class is overthrown by an oppressed class which then takes power. This is not the type of revolution that we saw in the two Edsas. Edsa 1 replaced the Marcos dictatorship with an elite democratic regime under Cory. Edsa 2 merely replaced the corrupt Erap government with a more corrupt government under GMA.
This does not mean that we should not welcome the acts of those trapos who are hitting at GMA, including former President FVR who asked her to come clean and stop ‘titillating the nation’. All these verbal tussles indicate the deepening rift that is driving a wedge among the trapos today.
The Con-Ass must be stopped. Not only because it will perpetrate the rule of Arroyo, but also because it will perpetrate the subjugation of our economy to the imperialist interests (through the Chacha that it will propose). Moreover, the Con-Ass represents and perpetrates trapo rule in the country.
The real revolution is yet to come. This is the revolution that will pit the forces of the masa against the forces of GMA and the trapos. And Con-Ass is an issue that might bring the masa in droves to protest in the streets.
It is important that all those who oppose Con-Ass should come together to build the main force that will stop the Con-Ass. But the direction of this anti-Con-Ass movement can not be the mere replacement of the Con-Ass trapos with another set of trapos, or the replacement of Arroyo with another presidential trapo.
Hence, it is imperative that the masa build their own anti-Con-Ass movement independent from the trapos who also oppose Con-Ass. To paraphrase the words of advice of the Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin to the working class movement vis-à-vis the capitalist class which was also opposing tsardom: We should march in unison with all the trapos opposing GMA and the Con-Ass, but we should never, never merge our movement with them. #
This warning comes in the heels of a series of protests that erupted after the ignominious passage of House Resolution 1109 by the Lower House two weeks ago. With the Resolution, the House can convene itself as a constituent assembly, without the Senate, to amend the constitution and pave the way for GMA’s continued rule after 2010.
Is the revolution imminent? Drilon replied, “The Filipino people may suffer hunger and economic difficulties in stride but I don’t think they will stand idle while President Arroyo and her cronies stamp on their political rights just to be able to hold on to power. The majority of the Filipino people may be silent but Malacañang should not mistake this for complacency and submissiveness.”
I am of the opinion that there is really something in the air. And this we witness almost daily through strings of actions in the streets lambasting GMA, the House and the Con-Ass. The actions may still be small in number, but the responses from the common people are quite overwhelming.
I found out that the Shame campaign of BMP, PLM and Sanlakas against those representatives who voted for HR 1109 has been gaining support from the masa in the streets. The activists throwing rotten eggs at the LTA building in Makati last Thursday were egged on (pun intended) by onlookers to target the top floor where Mike Arroyo holds office. Last Friday’s noise barrage of Akbayan and other groups at Philcoa were greeted with wild honking by motorists passing through the site.
And the protests will go on. The convening of the Con-Ass during the Sona or after the Sona might be the final straw that will break the camel’s back. This will look like the Senate envelope inquiry during Erap’s impeachment trial, which spurred Edsa Two and led to the exit of Estrada from Malacanang.
But first, some comments about the revolution.
I think that Drilon is really wishing for a revolution, but I guess he just meant an Edsa-type ‘revolution’ once again. Which means that the people will be called to rise up to ensure an unimpeded electoral exercise that will only put new trapos in power.
I have always maintained that the two Edsas have never been a revolution in the strict sense of the word. They overthrew governments, but they only replaced the persons in charge with those belonging to the rival factions of the same ruling classes.
A revolution is an act where the ruling class is overthrown by an oppressed class which then takes power. This is not the type of revolution that we saw in the two Edsas. Edsa 1 replaced the Marcos dictatorship with an elite democratic regime under Cory. Edsa 2 merely replaced the corrupt Erap government with a more corrupt government under GMA.
This does not mean that we should not welcome the acts of those trapos who are hitting at GMA, including former President FVR who asked her to come clean and stop ‘titillating the nation’. All these verbal tussles indicate the deepening rift that is driving a wedge among the trapos today.
The Con-Ass must be stopped. Not only because it will perpetrate the rule of Arroyo, but also because it will perpetrate the subjugation of our economy to the imperialist interests (through the Chacha that it will propose). Moreover, the Con-Ass represents and perpetrates trapo rule in the country.
The real revolution is yet to come. This is the revolution that will pit the forces of the masa against the forces of GMA and the trapos. And Con-Ass is an issue that might bring the masa in droves to protest in the streets.
It is important that all those who oppose Con-Ass should come together to build the main force that will stop the Con-Ass. But the direction of this anti-Con-Ass movement can not be the mere replacement of the Con-Ass trapos with another set of trapos, or the replacement of Arroyo with another presidential trapo.
Hence, it is imperative that the masa build their own anti-Con-Ass movement independent from the trapos who also oppose Con-Ass. To paraphrase the words of advice of the Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin to the working class movement vis-à-vis the capitalist class which was also opposing tsardom: We should march in unison with all the trapos opposing GMA and the Con-Ass, but we should never, never merge our movement with them. #
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Block Con-Ass, Blockade Congress
By a simple viva voce, the House of Representatives passed Resolution 1109 which allows the Lower House to transform itself into a Constituent Assembly (Con-Ass) in order to amend the 1987 Constitution.
This move has again shown that Congress has been turned into a plaything of the Arroyo administration. Whatever President GMA wants, she gets at least through the Lower House. The Philippine Daily Tribune has reported that the passage of HR 1109 came with a presidential bribe of P20 million pork barrel allocations for each congressman who voted “yea” in the plenary. Hence, despite protests from congressmen belonging to the minority group and mostly the party-lists, Congress rams thorough the Con-Ass resolution with impunity and glee.
The travesty was shown on television till midnight yesterday. The public has once again witnessed how Congress is used by the trapos in power. Without shame, trapo congressmen were shown salivating in delight as the leadership of the House maneuvered the railroading of the resolution.
This is the nth time that Congress has exposed itself as a stooge of the Arroyo administration. Last we remember, this Congress had junked the impeachment case filed by the Opposition. Previous to this, Congress had its congressmen and congresswomen lined up in a televised session to implement Malacanang’s order to depose former ally Jose de Venecia as Speaker of the House in favor of Prospero Nograles.
In this latest mockery and massacre of parliamentary democracy, Congress has served notice that it is ready to commit the crime of butchering the Constitution to serve the trapos’ ends. And if it is not stopped, Congress will commit the crime when it meets again during the Sona on July 27.
The only recourse to block the Con-Ass is to blockade the House. Don’t let Congress convene during the Sona. Don’t let it convene at all. Padlock it and put an end to trapo rule, at least in the Lower House. #
This move has again shown that Congress has been turned into a plaything of the Arroyo administration. Whatever President GMA wants, she gets at least through the Lower House. The Philippine Daily Tribune has reported that the passage of HR 1109 came with a presidential bribe of P20 million pork barrel allocations for each congressman who voted “yea” in the plenary. Hence, despite protests from congressmen belonging to the minority group and mostly the party-lists, Congress rams thorough the Con-Ass resolution with impunity and glee.
The travesty was shown on television till midnight yesterday. The public has once again witnessed how Congress is used by the trapos in power. Without shame, trapo congressmen were shown salivating in delight as the leadership of the House maneuvered the railroading of the resolution.
This is the nth time that Congress has exposed itself as a stooge of the Arroyo administration. Last we remember, this Congress had junked the impeachment case filed by the Opposition. Previous to this, Congress had its congressmen and congresswomen lined up in a televised session to implement Malacanang’s order to depose former ally Jose de Venecia as Speaker of the House in favor of Prospero Nograles.
In this latest mockery and massacre of parliamentary democracy, Congress has served notice that it is ready to commit the crime of butchering the Constitution to serve the trapos’ ends. And if it is not stopped, Congress will commit the crime when it meets again during the Sona on July 27.
The only recourse to block the Con-Ass is to blockade the House. Don’t let Congress convene during the Sona. Don’t let it convene at all. Padlock it and put an end to trapo rule, at least in the Lower House. #
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
.jpg)
