Monday, June 22, 2009

The Soliman Scenarios

In an e-mail message circulated by former Social Welfare Secretary Dinky Soliman, she enumerated a number of distinct scenarios that could unfold after the passage of HR 1109 by the House of Representatives. The listing down of the scenarios was an attempt by various NGOs and people’s organizations to strategize and to prepare in advance for any eventuality related to President GMA’s scheme to extend her rule. The scenarios, according to Soliman, were discussed during a meeting of various NGOs and people’s organizations opposed to the Constituent Assembly (Con-Ass).

Scenario 1: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. It sets the rules and proceeds to amend the constitution. A case is brought to the Supreme Court against the convening of Con-Ass. The SC decides that the Con-Ass, even without Senate approval, is valid. The plebiscite affirms a yes victory and May 2010 election is held for a parliamentary form of government. GMA runs on a district in Pampanga, she wins, and eventually becomes the first prime minister of the country.

Scenario 2: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. A case is filed in the Supreme Court and the SC declares that the Con-Ass is unconstitutional. The May 2010 presidential election goes unimpeded.

Scenario 3: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. There was rebellious outrage from the masses. Malacañang organizes ‘violent incidents’ to justify clampdown. GMA imposes emergency rule.

Scenario 4: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. A case is filed in the Supreme Court. The SC could not decide on time. The May 2010 elections continue. GMA runs for Congress in Pampanga and wins. Under a new president allied to GMA, Con-Ass continues and the SC finally affirms it. The Congress is converted into a unicameral body and GMA is elected as prime minister.

In these four scenarios, only Scenario 2 (the unimpeded May 10, 2010 elections) is considered in the Soliman email as the only one favorable for the citizenry. Scenarios 1, 3 and 4 are not desirable as they all point to GMA’s usurpation of power and extended rule either as prime minister (Scenario 1, 4) or dictator (Scenario 3).

If one’s framework of analysis is based on the mere continuation of regular elections, i.e., the usual elections dominated by different factions of trapo parties and individuals vying for seats – then, I would agree that only Scenario 2 is desirable.

However, for those who are really wanting authentic and radical change in the trapo politics, all of these scenarios open up opportunities to build a movement that can get rid of GMA and her cohorts, or even the entire trapo rule, during the course of its development.

For instance, the mere convening of Con-Ass, which is palpably designed to perpetuate President Arroyo to power, signals a number of opportunities to mobilize the masa and to work for GMA’s ouster during, or even before, the 2010 elections.

There are a number of ‘flashpoints’ or critical points where mass resistance may break out in the process leading to GMA’s extended rule as prime minister or dictator. The convening of the Con-Ass during Congress resumption on July 27 and thereafter will build more outrage from the people. The Supreme Court’s probable decision to allow the Con-Ass is another occasion for the build-up of people’s wrath. The plebiscite will be a massive campaign period for those opposing the amended constitution. The election (whether under a presidential or a parliamentary system) can also be a hotbed for resistance.

In the scenario involving GMA’s declaration of emergency rule, the outbreak of mass resistance will be more massive and decisive. Any attempt to reimpose martial law will be met with powerful opposition coming from all sectors, including from the nationalist and pro-masa soldiers.

The eruption of massive resistance is not an overly optimistic assessment, especially if one takes into consideration that all the scenarios infer stages of denouement where the masses and the political movement are provided the opportunities to intervene and to have some time to gear up for combat. While the trapos have their heydays, the forces for change are still intact and, with perseverance, can be mobilized to do battle.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Talking ‘Bout A Revolution

Former Senate President Franklin Drilon warned the Arroyo government of massive street protests that would lead to a revolution should it continue with the Con-Ass plan.

This warning comes in the heels of a series of protests that erupted after the ignominious passage of House Resolution 1109 by the Lower House two weeks ago. With the Resolution, the House can convene itself as a constituent assembly, without the Senate, to amend the constitution and pave the way for GMA’s continued rule after 2010.

Is the revolution imminent? Drilon replied, “The Filipino people may suffer hunger and economic difficulties in stride but I don’t think they will stand idle while President Arroyo and her cronies stamp on their political rights just to be able to hold on to power. The majority of the Filipino people may be silent but Malacañang should not mistake this for complacency and submissiveness.”

I am of the opinion that there is really something in the air. And this we witness almost daily through strings of actions in the streets lambasting GMA, the House and the Con-Ass. The actions may still be small in number, but the responses from the common people are quite overwhelming.

I found out that the Shame campaign of BMP, PLM and Sanlakas against those representatives who voted for HR 1109 has been gaining support from the masa in the streets. The activists throwing rotten eggs at the LTA building in Makati last Thursday were egged on (pun intended) by onlookers to target the top floor where Mike Arroyo holds office. Last Friday’s noise barrage of Akbayan and other groups at Philcoa were greeted with wild honking by motorists passing through the site.

And the protests will go on. The convening of the Con-Ass during the Sona or after the Sona might be the final straw that will break the camel’s back. This will look like the Senate envelope inquiry during Erap’s impeachment trial, which spurred Edsa Two and led to the exit of Estrada from Malacanang.

But first, some comments about the revolution.

I think that Drilon is really wishing for a revolution, but I guess he just meant an Edsa-type ‘revolution’ once again. Which means that the people will be called to rise up to ensure an unimpeded electoral exercise that will only put new trapos in power.

I have always maintained that the two Edsas have never been a revolution in the strict sense of the word. They overthrew governments, but they only replaced the persons in charge with those belonging to the rival factions of the same ruling classes.

A revolution is an act where the ruling class is overthrown by an oppressed class which then takes power. This is not the type of revolution that we saw in the two Edsas. Edsa 1 replaced the Marcos dictatorship with an elite democratic regime under Cory. Edsa 2 merely replaced the corrupt Erap government with a more corrupt government under GMA.

This does not mean that we should not welcome the acts of those trapos who are hitting at GMA, including former President FVR who asked her to come clean and stop ‘titillating the nation’. All these verbal tussles indicate the deepening rift that is driving a wedge among the trapos today.

The Con-Ass must be stopped. Not only because it will perpetrate the rule of Arroyo, but also because it will perpetrate the subjugation of our economy to the imperialist interests (through the Chacha that it will propose). Moreover, the Con-Ass represents and perpetrates trapo rule in the country.

The real revolution is yet to come. This is the revolution that will pit the forces of the masa against the forces of GMA and the trapos. And Con-Ass is an issue that might bring the masa in droves to protest in the streets.

It is important that all those who oppose Con-Ass should come together to build the main force that will stop the Con-Ass. But the direction of this anti-Con-Ass movement can not be the mere replacement of the Con-Ass trapos with another set of trapos, or the replacement of Arroyo with another presidential trapo.

Hence, it is imperative that the masa build their own anti-Con-Ass movement independent from the trapos who also oppose Con-Ass. To paraphrase the words of advice of the Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin to the working class movement vis-à-vis the capitalist class which was also opposing tsardom: We should march in unison with all the trapos opposing GMA and the Con-Ass, but we should never, never merge our movement with them. #

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Block Con-Ass, Blockade Congress

By a simple viva voce, the House of Representatives passed Resolution 1109 which allows the Lower House to transform itself into a Constituent Assembly (Con-Ass) in order to amend the 1987 Constitution.

This move has again shown that Congress has been turned into a plaything of the Arroyo administration. Whatever President GMA wants, she gets at least through the Lower House. The Philippine Daily Tribune has reported that the passage of HR 1109 came with a presidential bribe of P20 million pork barrel allocations for each congressman who voted “yea” in the plenary. Hence, despite protests from congressmen belonging to the minority group and mostly the party-lists, Congress rams thorough the Con-Ass resolution with impunity and glee.

The travesty was shown on television till midnight yesterday. The public has once again witnessed how Congress is used by the trapos in power. Without shame, trapo congressmen were shown salivating in delight as the leadership of the House maneuvered the railroading of the resolution.

This is the nth time that Congress has exposed itself as a stooge of the Arroyo administration. Last we remember, this Congress had junked the impeachment case filed by the Opposition. Previous to this, Congress had its congressmen and congresswomen lined up in a televised session to implement Malacanang’s order to depose former ally Jose de Venecia as Speaker of the House in favor of Prospero Nograles.

In this latest mockery and massacre of parliamentary democracy, Congress has served notice that it is ready to commit the crime of butchering the Constitution to serve the trapos’ ends. And if it is not stopped, Congress will commit the crime when it meets again during the Sona on July 27.

The only recourse to block the Con-Ass is to blockade the House. Don’t let Congress convene during the Sona. Don’t let it convene at all. Padlock it and put an end to trapo rule, at least in the Lower House. #

Monday, June 1, 2009

Let us now begin the Revolution for Change

Opening talk by Sonny Melencio on the
“Pagbabago! No More Trapos in 2010!” Forum
June 1, 2009, UP Diliman, QC

On behalf of Partido Lakas ng Masa, I would like to extend our thanks to our two guests here who would be speaking together with me in this forum.

One has already symbolized the struggle against the trapo, and I refer to Among Ed. Among Ed has in fact defeated not only the three letter Gs that come to symbolize the guns, goons and gold wielded by the trapos. In Pampanga, Among Ed has beaten the 5 Gs – which includes 2 more Gs representing Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and the Gambling lords.

The other one symbolized the call for change, in fact the call for the ouster of the Arroyo regime, during the Manila Peninsula rebellion on November 29, 2007. He is not with us today, because he’s still in detention, but he is represented by his lawyer Atty. Trixie Cruz-Angeles who’s going to give us the message from Brig. Gen. Danilo Lim.

Together with our two speakers, I now announce the initial steps in the formation of a broad anti-trapo, pro-masa movement that we will expand in the coming months leading to the 2010 elections. The anti-trapo, pro-masa movement will aim to expose the trapo candidates in the election, and will also promote the anti-trapo candidates like the guest speakers that we have now. We have not yet firmed up our standard-bearer in the 2010 election, but we will give all the non-trapo candidates the chance to guest in our forums and activities.

This is a forum off-limits to the trapos but let me speak first about what we mean by the trapos and the kind of rule they represent.

The trapos

Trapo means traditional politician. In its narrow meaning, the trapo is the political representative of the Filipino elite. The trapos are the political clans and the political dynasty which the clans have established in several areas of the country for long years now. Some clans have in fact been holding political power for centuries.

According to the Citizens Anti-Dynasty Movement, at least 120 families control political power in more than 75 percent of the country’s 81 provinces. They also reported that practically 100 percent of major cities are under the control of one or another political clan that passes down power almost as a right on inheritance. This is what we mean when we say these are the people who are “born to rule”.

Just to give you a rundown of the trapo clans. The most prominent from North to South are the Dys of Isabela, the Marcoses of Ilocos Norte, the Singsons of Ilocos Sur, the Josons of Nueva Ecija, the Magsaysays of Zambales, the Cojuangcos and Aquinos of Tarlac, the Macapagals of Pampanga, the Osmeñas of Cebu, the Rectos of Batangas, the Gordons of Zambales, the Duranos of Danao City, the Antoninos of General Santos, and the Lobregats of Zamboanga City.

In recent years new dynasties have emerged like the Estradas of San Juan, the Arroyos of Pampanga and Negros Occidental, the Angaras of Aurora, the Defensors of Iloilo and Quezon City, the Villafuertes of Camarines Sur, and the Akbars of Basilan.

If we look at today’s election, the trapos are back in business once more. And we mean not just the trapos of the Administration, but also the trapos from the Opposition.

The list of today’s presidentiables reads like a whos-who on the top trapo families:

-- Gilbert ‘Gibo’ Teodoro, one of the main presidential contenders of the Palaka (Partido Lakas at Kampi merger), comes from the clan related to Danding Cojuangco, who’s the brother of Gibo’s mother. Teodoro’s wife, Monica “Nikki” Prieto, is a congresswoman from the first district of Tarlac, which is the bailiwick of the Cojuangco’s and now the Teodoros.
-- Manny Villar (Nacionalista Party) represents the clan which has been holding power in Las Pinas City. His wife, Cynthia Aguilar-Villar, is the congresswoman in Las Pinas. The Aguilars, together with the Villars, are the politically incestuous clan in Las Pinas.
-- Mar Roxas (Liberal Party) is the grandson of former president Manuel Roxas, who was suspected as a collaborator during the Japanese period but was cleared by MacArthur, and then became the first president after the war. His father was the late Senator Gerry Roxas.
-- Chiz Escudero (Nationalist People’s Coalition) comes from the Escudero clan which has been holding power in Sorsogon. The father was the former congressman in the first district of Sorsogon; Chiz uncles were the mayor and vice-governor in Sorsogon.
-- Joseph Estrada (Partido ng Masang Pilipino) is trying to make a comeback. He has built his own dynasty in San Juan. His son JV is now the mayor, the other son Jinggoy and his wife Loy have both become senators.
-- Perhaps, Noli de Castro is the only one who’s not identifiable as a trapo. He came in power in 2001 as a senator, and became the vice-president in 2004, so he has already 8 years in the government. But what has he done in these 8 years, and whose power has he been serving all through these years? If not GMA, is it the oligarchs who are reputed to be supporting him?

Some points to clarify.

Sometimes there are newly-emerging trapos (who are the scions of the political clans) who have not been involved in any traditional political and corrupt activities, and who therefore resist the tag of belonging to the trapos. Although the tag may not seem to fit them yet as separate individuals, they are trapos in the sense of being members of the clans which perpetrate elite rule in the country.

The trapos are usually seen as the most corrupt and warlord-like representatives of the elite. But some of the elite may be benign and modernizing, but they are trapos nonetheless as they represent the dominant forces in a system that oppresses and marginalizes the broad masses.

Sometimes they are not really part of the political clans or the economic elite in the country. But they become trapos because they have given their services to an elite group in order to be voted to and remain in power.

While the trapos may vary in their viciousness as a trapo, the point we are making is that:

First, the people deserve better. Some trapos may be benign and modernizing, but even the monarchy of the old days have kings and queens which were benign and modernizing. But even then, who needs a monarchy/dynasty-type of rule today?

Secondly, the trapos/ the trapo clans have been given all the opportunities in the world to serve in the government. In fact, the government has become them. The trapos have become the government, and the ways of the trapos have become the ways of the government.

While monopolizing power, the trapos have failed to provide for the needs of the people, they have failed to provide for employment for the labor force, they have failed to provide affordable food and services for the poor, affordable housing, land for the landless farmers and agricultural workers, education for the young people, hospital care, and others. They are a failure. They have become the stumbling block to development. They in fact have become the problems, and not a solution.

What we are saying is that Enough is enough. Sobra na, tama na. Pagbabago na, No more trapo in 2010.

The masa

The solution to the country’s problems lies not in the trapos but in the antithesis of the trapos, the non-trapos or the genuine representatives of masa. That’s why we’re bringing here the non-trapo candidates who represent the masa. Not in the way in which Erap has come to represent the masa, and even named his party Partido ng Masang Pilipino, which was a misnomer given that Erap was not of the masa (in his films perhaps). We are referring to candidates who come from the masa, and are still with the masa, and therefore can properly represent the masa.

The other side of the anti-trapo movement is the pro-masa movement, which means that in defeating the trapos, we have to ensure that we put the masa in power. We do not believe in another Edsa where we overthrow dictatorial and corrupt government only to install a more corrupt one.

We are fighting the trapo precisely to promote the needs of the masa. But first we have to expose the trapos, because they have used the media and the three Gs to project themselves as the ones fit to rule the masa.

Platform of government

One best way to expose the trapo is to do away with personality-oriented politics and to look into the platform of the candidates. Let us pin them down on their platform of governance. The trapos get away with motherhood statements because the masa fail to concretize what they want.

And this is the challenge we pose to all, even among the non-trapos and the masa that are gathered here: Are we going to look for leaders on the basis of their clan, their education, their wealth, their connections, their money… Or are we going to test them on the basis of whether they can solve our long-term problems, and therefore contribute to the development of each one, and not just a few lucky bastards.

This test would mean asking the candidate whether his or her platform of government is based on, for instance:

-- An immediate moratorium to the closures of factories and lay-offs, and a program towards full employment for the labor force. We mean not partial employment, not temporary employment, but full, long-term employment based on wages that can provide for the needs of the families. Not employment outside the country, but employment in the country, in the Philippines, right now.
-- A program of delivering basic services to the poor, such as free education for the poor children; no demolition but decent housing for the urban poor; genuine & comprehensive agrarian reform that provides land to the tillers and the necessary support infrastructure for agriculture; free health care and hospitalization; provision of doctors’ services at every barangay; the setting up of government-run stores at every barangay which carry items that have affordable prices for the poor.
-- A program of political reforms, which include the democratization of Congress or the formation of a People’s Congress which will reverse the setup where a few trapos rule our politics while the majority of the population do not have political power, and are even called the ‘marginalized sectors’. We must also have a program to disconnect the barangay councils from the control of the local government trapos, from the trapo mayors and congressmen, and the replacement of the barangay council with a barangay assembly that represents the entire families in a barangay much like the neighborhood councils.

These are just some aspects of the pro-masa platform that we should ask each of the candidates whether he or she can deliver. And we know that these demands of the masa are not impossible. All these things are possible. We know the government has the resources to provide for the needs of the people, except that it has no political will and the trapos have no personal will to provide for the needs of the people. And this is because this is a government of the trapos where the trapos do not serve the people but their clans and immediate friends and cronies, and their own pockets.

But where can we get the money to provide for the masa? In Venezuela, they say, they have oil, so Hugo Chavez can use oil money to provide for free health care, free education, free housing and massive government subsidies to basic necessities. But we also have that money. For instance, we have been automatically appropriating 40% of our national budget towards payment of foreign debts. These are erroneous debts which have been incurred by successive administrations starting with Marcos. Debts which have ballooned to $55 billion dollars or P3 trillion in 2007. We now know the figures, but we don’t even know what these debts are and how were they spent by the government. To provide for substantial social welfare projects, we can do what Argentina did. Declare a moratorium on debt payment and shift the debt payment to these projects. It has been done and we can do it here, if we have a government which has the will to do it.

Lastly, the building of an anti-trapo, pro-masa movement corresponds to our call for a Revolution for Change. We declare that from hereon, we will be launching a revolution, a genuine one compared to the series of so-called Edsa Revolutions. The Edsa Revolutions were fake revolutions where incumbent trapos were overthrown to give way to other trapos. We should be reminded that a revolution is an act where a ruling class is overthrown by another class which takes power. What could be more revolutionary today than dismantling trapo rule and putting the masa in power. Let us now put in place the building blocks for a new future. Tunay na pagbabago! No more trapo! The masa should rule… #