Snake's Gambit

National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales goes to town peddling the idea that the solution to the current political crisis is through a military-backed transition government.

The transition government, according to Gonzales, will be represented by a Council of State that shall include President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, representatives from the two houses of Congress, the judiciary (namely, Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno), the Church (the CBCP or some Catholic bishops), and the military (headed by General Victor Ibrado). Gonzales also wanted to involve representatives from the civil society and the political groups in the country.

Gonzales likened this transition government to the “revolutionary government” established by former President Corazon Aquino immediately after the 1986 people’s power uprising. But my view is that Gonzales’ transition government is nowhere near what Cory established in 1986. Reading the updated edition of Criselda Yabes’ groundbreaking book The Boys from the Barracks (now available again at several bookshops), I say it could be likened to the Council for National Reconciliation, a council of state that was supposed to replace Marcos in the event of a successful coup d’etat engineered at that time by then Secretary of Defense Johnny Enrile and the RAM forces.

As envisioned, the Council for National Reconciliation would be composed of Enrile, Fidel Ramos, Cory Aquino, Salvador Laurel, Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin, businessman Jaime Ongpin, and diplomat Alejandro Melchor. The Council did not materialize. Instead, Cory Aquino took power and declared a “revolutionary government” all by her lonesome.

Gonzales’ Council of State

The idea behind Gonzales’ Council of State is to bring together all the bickering political groups towards a non-violent transition of the tottering state machinery. Gonzales stresses the “revolutionary character” of the Council in so far as it will aim to do away with the constitutional impediments in the latest attempt to amend the Constitution and introduce “electoral reforms”. Gonzales’ transition government is designed to ensure Charter change through the continuation of the Con-Ass or the establishment of a handpicked constitutional commission under a cloud of emergency rule.

It was reported that Gonzales’ timetable for the imposition of the transition government would be anytime between August and September, or a few weeks before the filing of candidacy for the 2010 elections. Come November, the political climate will have to veer away from any extra-constitutional scheming and focus on the campaigns and the elections.

Gonzales raves about the transition government as the political elixir to the bickering between the two houses of Congress, to the intermittent power-grab plotting among factions of the ruling classes, and to Gloria’s desperate attempt to hold on to power at the expense of destabilizing the entire political system. With a council of state that includes almost all of the political players that matter today, Gonzales assures everyone that the transition period will be stable and smooth-sailing compared to any other initiatives pursued by various contending forces.

This is probably the “selling point” that got some Catholic bishops agreeing to the idea of a transition government. For them, it could be another form of getting rid of GMA. GMA will be in the transition government only as an “unwilling accomplice” or crudely put, a captive by all the other forces surrounding her in the so-called council of state.

Gonzales himself explained that the plot will involve several steps intended to unify the motley forces that will compose the transition council. First, an agreement with the bishops; next, with Chief Justice Reynato Puno; then, with the military; the civil society; etc.; and finally with GMA herself.

Who is Gonzales representing?

There are a number of issues that need to be clarified in the Gonzales’ proposal:

First, has this proposal got a backing from GMA? If it has, then what would that make of those people who have agreed to the council of state set-up, such as CJ Puno as reported by Newsbreak (see newsbreak.com.ph) or from what we heard, those supposedly anti-GMA bishops? Could GMA charge them later on as part of “conspirators” trying to grab power from her administration?

Second, for the transition government to be proclaimed, it will mean that the normal constitutional avenues for change have failed, so that the only recourse will be through extra-constitutional exercise. If the transition government is not a product of a people’s uprising (ala-Edsa), then it can only be imposed through emergency rule or a coup d’etat.

So what does it mean? That Gonzales is doing a double agent’s job? He’s working for the Queen, but his overture with the anti-GMA opposition looks like he is bent to checkmate the Queen. But in Gonzales’ scheme of things, the Queen will still rule. Does this mean just an attempt to flush out all probable contenders to the throne? Is it the Queen’s gambit then?

But knowing Gonzales, or how he has managed to put himself in the center of all this plotting, it is more correct to say this is a Snake’s gambit than anything else. #