Friday, July 31, 2009

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Snake's Gambit



National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales goes to town peddling the idea that the solution to the current political crisis is through a military-backed transition government.

The transition government, according to Gonzales, will be represented by a Council of State that shall include President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, representatives from the two houses of Congress, the judiciary (namely, Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno), the Church (the CBCP or some Catholic bishops), and the military (headed by General Victor Ibrado). Gonzales also wanted to involve representatives from the civil society and the political groups in the country.

Gonzales likened this transition government to the “revolutionary government” established by former President Corazon Aquino immediately after the 1986 people’s power uprising. But my view is that Gonzales’ transition government is nowhere near what Cory established in 1986. Reading the updated edition of Criselda Yabes’ groundbreaking book The Boys from the Barracks (now available again at several bookshops), I say it could be likened to the Council for National Reconciliation, a council of state that was supposed to replace Marcos in the event of a successful coup d’etat engineered at that time by then Secretary of Defense Johnny Enrile and the RAM forces.

As envisioned, the Council for National Reconciliation would be composed of Enrile, Fidel Ramos, Cory Aquino, Salvador Laurel, Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin, businessman Jaime Ongpin, and diplomat Alejandro Melchor. The Council did not materialize. Instead, Cory Aquino took power and declared a “revolutionary government” all by her lonesome.

Gonzales’ Council of State

The idea behind Gonzales’ Council of State is to bring together all the bickering political groups towards a non-violent transition of the tottering state machinery. Gonzales stresses the “revolutionary character” of the Council in so far as it will aim to do away with the constitutional impediments in the latest attempt to amend the Constitution and introduce “electoral reforms”. Gonzales’ transition government is designed to ensure Charter change through the continuation of the Con-Ass or the establishment of a handpicked constitutional commission under a cloud of emergency rule.

It was reported that Gonzales’ timetable for the imposition of the transition government would be anytime between August and September, or a few weeks before the filing of candidacy for the 2010 elections. Come November, the political climate will have to veer away from any extra-constitutional scheming and focus on the campaigns and the elections.

Gonzales raves about the transition government as the political elixir to the bickering between the two houses of Congress, to the intermittent power-grab plotting among factions of the ruling classes, and to Gloria’s desperate attempt to hold on to power at the expense of destabilizing the entire political system. With a council of state that includes almost all of the political players that matter today, Gonzales assures everyone that the transition period will be stable and smooth-sailing compared to any other initiatives pursued by various contending forces.

This is probably the “selling point” that got some Catholic bishops agreeing to the idea of a transition government. For them, it could be another form of getting rid of GMA. GMA will be in the transition government only as an “unwilling accomplice” or crudely put, a captive by all the other forces surrounding her in the so-called council of state.

Gonzales himself explained that the plot will involve several steps intended to unify the motley forces that will compose the transition council. First, an agreement with the bishops; next, with Chief Justice Reynato Puno; then, with the military; the civil society; etc.; and finally with GMA herself.

Who is Gonzales representing?

There are a number of issues that need to be clarified in the Gonzales’ proposal:

First, has this proposal got a backing from GMA? If it has, then what would that make of those people who have agreed to the council of state set-up, such as CJ Puno as reported by Newsbreak (see newsbreak.com.ph) or from what we heard, those supposedly anti-GMA bishops? Could GMA charge them later on as part of “conspirators” trying to grab power from her administration?

Second, for the transition government to be proclaimed, it will mean that the normal constitutional avenues for change have failed, so that the only recourse will be through extra-constitutional exercise. If the transition government is not a product of a people’s uprising (ala-Edsa), then it can only be imposed through emergency rule or a coup d’etat.

So what does it mean? That Gonzales is doing a double agent’s job? He’s working for the Queen, but his overture with the anti-GMA opposition looks like he is bent to checkmate the Queen. But in Gonzales’ scheme of things, the Queen will still rule. Does this mean just an attempt to flush out all probable contenders to the throne? Is it the Queen’s gambit then?

But knowing Gonzales, or how he has managed to put himself in the center of all this plotting, it is more correct to say this is a Snake’s gambit than anything else. #



Wednesday, July 8, 2009

The Diabolical August Moon

August 6 is the calendar day when there’s going to be a full moon. It is also the day that marks the imposition of emergency rule, according to Oplan August Moon, a plan that is rumored to be the handiwork of “hawks and ideologues” within the Arroyo government upon the order of President GMA herself.

The plan is to position military generals friendly to GMA in a self-coup that would bolster the administration’s bid to amend the Constitution before the end of the year, or before the 2010 elections. The charter change is ultimately designed to extend GMA’s stay in power either as a “transition president” or the first prime minister under a parliamentary government.

Major details of Oplan August Moon have been circulating in the Internet in the past few days. [For full disclosure of Oplan August Moon, see attached an e-mail that was passed on to my address.]

PNP Director General Jesus Versoza and other government officials have laughed off the plan as preposterous and a creation of some opposition “propagandists”.

But what makes Oplan August Moon believable to many has been the sequence of events that preceded the leaking out of the plot, and more so, the wave of bombings that are happening today which have been predicted in the plan.

‘Revolutionary’ transitory government

A week before Oplan August Moon was leaked to the media, GMA’s national security adviser Norberto Gonzales floated the idea of declaring a revolutionary “transitory government” composed of the leadership of the two houses of Congress, the judiciary, and the Church. It will be a collective leadership under the helm of GMA herself. Virtually, it is an extension of GMA’s presidency.

According to Gonzales, the transition government will amend the Constitution and put in electoral reforms before the 2010 elections. The transition government is ‘revolutionary’ in the sense that it will have to dispense with any Constitutional impediments related to Cha-cha and the prerogatives of the president.

The Gonzales’ proposal is clearly a ‘palace coup’ in line with the Oplan August Moon. The plan can be seen as the implementation of the proposal, with a clear military’s role as back up to the ‘transitory government’.

Now, the bombings

Oplan August Moon also indicates the intensification of an environment of chaos and confusion leading to the declaration of emergency rule. The scenario involves “bombings, assassinations of key government officials and members of the media”. These operations will be blamed to the Jemaah Islamiyah or the Al-Qaeda members who were reported earlier on by the media as being in the country already.

As of today, there has been a wave of bombings in Mindanao, beginning with a Sunday blast outside the Cotabato cathedral which claimed the lives of six persons. On Tuesday, three more bomb attacks occurred in various parts of Mindanao – an explosion hit Jolo and Iligan City, killing two more people and injuring scores of others. The bombings have not only hit Mindanao. A bomb was detonated near the Ombudsman building, and another one was found near the Department of Agriculture.

At first, the military pointed to the rogue elements of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) as perpetrators under a supposed “grand plan” to sow terror in Mindanao. The MILF has quickly denied the charges. As of today, the military and police forces have declared red alert in Metro Manila. The chief of military’s NCR command, Maj. Gen. Leo Fojas, now declares that the bombings were undertaken by a “terror group” composed of three to four members of the Abu Sayyaf bandit group, a rogue unit in the MILF, and the Jemaah Islamiyah of the global Al-Qaeda network.

A few days after the Cotabato bombing, former ISAFP member and whistle-blower Vidal Doble declared that only the government could be behind the bombing.

Insiders’ expose

Oplan August Moon and the diabolical plan to impose emergency rule in the country have fanned deep divisions among factions of the ruling elite.

Former House speaker Jose de Venecia condemned the bombings as part of an administration plot to impose emergency rule, or martial law, as envisioned in Oplan August Moon. De Venecia even exposed that during the Manila Peninsula hotel siege in 2007, GMA had almost declared martial law. “If she nearly did it once, she could do it now,” the ousted speaker lamented.

Prior to de Venecia’s bombshells, former senate president Franklin Drilon has also linked up the bombings to GMA’s plan to impose emergency rule. If these people, who were formerly part of the inner circle of the Arroyo administration, are now warning the people of the plot to impose emergency rule, then Oplan August Moon seems to have been already put in place.

People’s vigilance

The Inquirer editorial today sums up the sinister situation developing today. While the government seems to be whipping up paranoia to justify martial rule, it is a virtue for the public to also act paranoid. Not to fall into the trap of the government’s line, but to understand that there are indeed many enemies of our democracy, starting from the snakes and vultures at the Malacanang palace itself. The Inquirer said, “They exist, and are waiting only for the people’s vigilance to weaken.”

Attachment re Oplan August Moon

“Oplan August Moon ( Hope to write some of my thoughts on this in days to come...)

Posted by Patricio Mangubat on Monday, June 29, 2009

Brace yourself my friends for a tumultuous July. Some months ago, I've wrote an entry about the plan of hawks and ideologues within the Arroyo administration to create scenarios to implement Operation August Moon. This self-coup will happen the week after the SONA, on August 6, 2009. One of the indicators, say a source who requested anonymity, is the expected failure of the poll automation bidding.

" Pat, the plan involves compromising the automated bidding altogether, " says a friend privy to the plan. " Imagine, what was the reason why they approved of Smartmatic-TIM (the company that won the COMELEC's bid for election automation in the Philippines) when they know for a fact, that the only capability of the group is face value of Cezar Quiambao and Ernest Villareal. That's all. The so-called consortium which was backed legally by one of Comelec chairman's closest relative was never in existence. They just used the group to get the bidding and eventually the plan was really to mess things up. That would surely create unrest especially to the De Villa group who is pushing for automation of the elections."

COMELEC Chairman Jose Melo said in an Inquirer interview that they don't want to negotiate with a "ghost". Well, I don't know about Melo, but I am totally surprised with Atty. Rafanan. Why did Rafanan failed to even check the credentials of Smartmatic-TIM before they even allowed them to take part in the bidding? Is it elementary for a member of the bar to do that?

This failure of the Comelec just shows that the entire thing was a setup, a design to really sabotage the bidding and compromise the elections in May 2010.

The plan also involves the heightening of tensions between rebel groups and the military in Mindanao since most generals distrust Southcom Brig. General Juancho Sabban. They want to keep Sabban busy in Mindanao so that he'll have his hands full while they orchestrate their moves in Metro Manila (a bomb exploded in the Ombudsman building and the discovery of another bomb in the Department of Agriculture building?).

Sabban is the youngest member of Class 1978 yet he reportedly does not share his mistahs' dogged allegiance to Mrs. Arroyo. He was formerly a member of RAM (Rebolusyunaryong Alyansang Makabansa). Yet, says deeper sources in the military, he'll take extreme action once other members of his class went ahead with Arroyo's plan.

Moves were to create an environment of chaos and confusion, with reports of bombings, assasinations of key government officials and members of the media. These black operations will be blamed to so-called JI or Al-qaeda members who, a week ago, was reportedly in the country already. News about their existence were floated to the media to be used later on by the government in the blame game.

A move against Lacson accuser former police official Cezar Mancao is reportedly also in the pipeline. The source refused to say what would happen to Mancao.

This early, talks that PMA Class 1976 of which the present AFP Chief of Staff General Ibrado belongs to and PMA Class 1978 were already at logger heads. Army Chief Lt. General Delfin Bangit is reportedly filling up sensitive posts without the knowledge of Ibrado.

Bear in mind that all sensitive positions right now in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) are occupied by members of Class 1978. The Air Force is headed by Lt. Gen. Oscar Rabena. The entire NCRPO which has, under its disposal, the anti-coup task force, is headed by Chief Supt. Roberto Rosales while the head of the Manila Police District which provides external security of Malacanang right now is headed by Director Rodolfo Magtibay.

Members of Class 1976 occupy the Central Command (Lt. Gen.. Isagani Cachuela), the Navy (Vice Admiral Ferdinand Golez) and the Marines (Major Gen. Ben Mohammad Dolorfino). The AFP leadership is also being occupied by a PMA class 1976 member (Ibrado) and the PNP (Director General Jesus Verzosa).

The critical commands (Army and Air Force) are under the command of members of PMA Class 1978 while those with minimal numbers (the Marines and the Navy) were entrusted to PMA Class 1976.

Sources say Mrs. Arroyo's group will ease Ibrado out prior to the 2010 elections. They will use as a pretext this August 6 affair. Members of Class 1978 will move decisively ten days after July 27.

The plan is expected to take place on August 6, 2009, a full ten days after the SONA (SONA is slated on July 27, the Monday of the fourth week of July).

A state of martial rule will be imposed for six months, while members of Arroyo's devilish clan tinker with the Constitution. Parliamentary elections are slated on May 2010.

Other members of Class 1978 involved in this plan:

In GHQ, Camp Aguinaldo:

J2 (Inteligence) – Rear Adm. Victor Martir (PN – Philippine Navy)
Deputy J2 – Commodore EfrenTedor (PN)
J3 (Operations) - Maj. Gen. Carlos Holganza (PA – Philippine Army)
J6 (Commel) – Maj. Gen.. Jonathan Martir (PM – Philippine Marines)
J7 (Civil-Military Relations) – Maj. Gen. Sealana (PA)
DND-BAC Chairman – Brig. Gen. Gregorio Paduganan (PAF – Philippine Air Force)
Chief of Engineers – Maj. Gen. Rudyval Cabading (PA)
ISAFP – Maj. Gen. Romeo Prestoza (PAF)
Presidential Security Group – Brig. Gen. Celedonio Boquiren (PAF)

In the Army, six out of 10 infantry divisions are under the control of the Class of ’78 members, namely:

Lt. Gen.. Delfin Bangit – Commanding General of the Philippine Army
Maj. Gen. Roland Detabali – CG, Southern Luzon Command
Maj. Gen. Romeo Lustecteca – CG, 1st Infantry Division (Zamboanga del Norte)
Brig. Gen Florante Martinez – OIC, 2nd Infantry Division (Tanay, Rizal)
Maj. Gen. Vic Porto – CG, 3rd Infantry Division (Panay Island)
Maj. Gen. Ralph Villanueva – CG, 7th Infantry Division (Fort Magsaysay, Nueva Ecija)
Maj. Gen. Manuel Tabaquero – CG, 8th Infantry Division (Catbalogan, Samar)
Maj. Gen. Reynaldo Mapagu – CG, 10th Infantry Division (Caraga Region)

In the Air Force, there is Maj.. Gen. Oscar Rabena as Commanding General, and Brig. Gen Jesus Fajardo – CG, 710th Special Operations Wing as well as Col. Carlix Donila – Commander, 530th Air Base Wing (Zamboanga).

And in the Navy, the chief of the Naval Staff, Commodore Feliciano Angue, as well as heading the most strategically- located naval station in Cavite is Commodore Nestor Los Banes.

So now the game of the generals are on! Who'll be check mated in the end?

Now that I already revealed their plan in public, what now? Will they proceed with zero hour or not?

The best strategy against this devilish plan is expose them in public. I already did my part. How about the thousands of Patriots out there? Will you do yours?”