The Soliman Scenarios

In an e-mail message circulated by former Social Welfare Secretary Dinky Soliman, she enumerated a number of distinct scenarios that could unfold after the passage of HR 1109 by the House of Representatives. The listing down of the scenarios was an attempt by various NGOs and people’s organizations to strategize and to prepare in advance for any eventuality related to President GMA’s scheme to extend her rule. The scenarios, according to Soliman, were discussed during a meeting of various NGOs and people’s organizations opposed to the Constituent Assembly (Con-Ass).

Scenario 1: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. It sets the rules and proceeds to amend the constitution. A case is brought to the Supreme Court against the convening of Con-Ass. The SC decides that the Con-Ass, even without Senate approval, is valid. The plebiscite affirms a yes victory and May 2010 election is held for a parliamentary form of government. GMA runs on a district in Pampanga, she wins, and eventually becomes the first prime minister of the country.

Scenario 2: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. A case is filed in the Supreme Court and the SC declares that the Con-Ass is unconstitutional. The May 2010 presidential election goes unimpeded.

Scenario 3: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. There was rebellious outrage from the masses. Malacañang organizes ‘violent incidents’ to justify clampdown. GMA imposes emergency rule.

Scenario 4: The HOR convenes as a Con-Ass. A case is filed in the Supreme Court. The SC could not decide on time. The May 2010 elections continue. GMA runs for Congress in Pampanga and wins. Under a new president allied to GMA, Con-Ass continues and the SC finally affirms it. The Congress is converted into a unicameral body and GMA is elected as prime minister.

In these four scenarios, only Scenario 2 (the unimpeded May 10, 2010 elections) is considered in the Soliman email as the only one favorable for the citizenry. Scenarios 1, 3 and 4 are not desirable as they all point to GMA’s usurpation of power and extended rule either as prime minister (Scenario 1, 4) or dictator (Scenario 3).

If one’s framework of analysis is based on the mere continuation of regular elections, i.e., the usual elections dominated by different factions of trapo parties and individuals vying for seats – then, I would agree that only Scenario 2 is desirable.

However, for those who are really wanting authentic and radical change in the trapo politics, all of these scenarios open up opportunities to build a movement that can get rid of GMA and her cohorts, or even the entire trapo rule, during the course of its development.

For instance, the mere convening of Con-Ass, which is palpably designed to perpetuate President Arroyo to power, signals a number of opportunities to mobilize the masa and to work for GMA’s ouster during, or even before, the 2010 elections.

There are a number of ‘flashpoints’ or critical points where mass resistance may break out in the process leading to GMA’s extended rule as prime minister or dictator. The convening of the Con-Ass during Congress resumption on July 27 and thereafter will build more outrage from the people. The Supreme Court’s probable decision to allow the Con-Ass is another occasion for the build-up of people’s wrath. The plebiscite will be a massive campaign period for those opposing the amended constitution. The election (whether under a presidential or a parliamentary system) can also be a hotbed for resistance.

In the scenario involving GMA’s declaration of emergency rule, the outbreak of mass resistance will be more massive and decisive. Any attempt to reimpose martial law will be met with powerful opposition coming from all sectors, including from the nationalist and pro-masa soldiers.

The eruption of massive resistance is not an overly optimistic assessment, especially if one takes into consideration that all the scenarios infer stages of denouement where the masses and the political movement are provided the opportunities to intervene and to have some time to gear up for combat. While the trapos have their heydays, the forces for change are still intact and, with perseverance, can be mobilized to do battle.